best someone else Taliban Afghanistan, than a Taliban Nuclear Pakistan!?

It took the Soviets 10 years and the loss of 15,000 forces before they admitted they admitted defeat in Afghanistan. For the West, it will not take so long for the slow bleed to become a hemorrhage. It will be only a matter of one or two years, at the most before, Afghanistan falls and the country collapses again into fragmentation and internal civil war. It may nothing else but come sooner.

The Soviets were prepared to fight to the death in Afghanistan because they knew the edge of their empire was crumbling and a domino follow on its other republics would follow. The Soviet bureaucracy was fighting for its life. In Cold War terms it would have been the equivalent of the Us loosing Mexico to communism. The Us and Nato forces don't have anything like the same motivation, determination and commitment to fight to the end in Afghanistan.

News From Afghanistan

The nature of catastrophy and abysmal defeat in Iraq fundamentally undermines the psychological foundations of any victorious defence of the Kabul regime. The failure of new "surge" will embolden the Taliban and undermine confidence in the West among the Afghan people and among the warlord Mujahedin, who dominate its government. Collapse in Iraq will intensify the sense of hopelessness and pointlessness among Western forces and compel demoralization and defeat.

They are low on sufficient resources and relegated in importance. The former British Commander of Nato forces admitted that last year they came close to losing Kandahar, the second city. It is not ruled out that much of the south and east could fall into Taliban hands this year, paving the way for the fall of Kabul, the year after.

The Taliban are ferocious fighters, with a messianic fervour to fight to the death. They bring with them the taste of veterans of the brutal Soviet war and the civil war which followed. Now regrouped, rearmed, their forces are prepared both for unfavourable open combat of approximately suicidal proportions. Furthermore they are opportunistically changing tactics, both in order to create maximum urban destabilization and to win local retain in the countryside. Boasting of more than 1,000 suicide volunteer bombers, they have also renounced their former course against heroin cultivation, thus allowing them to win retain among the rural people and gain retain from local tribes, warlords and criminal gangs, who have been alienated by Nato policies of poppy field destruction.

Although disliked and despised in many quarters, the Taliban could not advance without the retain or acquiescence of parts of the population, especially in the south. In particular, the Taliban is drawing on backing from the Pashtun tribes from whom they originate. The southern and eastern areas have been totally out of government control since 2001. Moreover, not only have they not benefited at all from the Allied occupation, but it is increasingly clear that with a few small centres of exception, all of the country outside Kabul has seen slight revision in its circumstances. The conditions for unrest are ripe and the Taliban is filling the vacuum.

The Break-Up of Afghanistan?

However, the Taliban is unlikely to win much retain outside of the marvelous Pashtun tribes. Although they make up a majority of the nation, they are concentrated in the south and east. Among the other key minorities, such as Tajiks and Uzbeks, who control the north they have no opening of manufacture new inroads. They will fight the Taliban and fight hard, but their loyalty to the Nato and Us forces is tenuous to say the least.

The Northern Alliance originally liberated Kabul from the Taliban without Allied ground support. The Northern Alliance are fierce fighters, veterans of the war of liberation against the Soviets and the Afghanistan civil war. Mobilized they count for a much stronger adversary than the Nato and Us forces. It is potential that, while they won't fight for the current government or coalition forces, they will nothing else but resist any new Taliban rule. They may settle to withdraw to their areas in the north and west of the country.

This would leave the Allied forces with few communal reserves, excepting a frightened and unstable urban people in Kabul, much like what happened to the Soviets. Squeezed by facing fierce fighting in Helmund and other provinces, and, at the same time, harried by a complementary tactic of Al Qaeda-style urban terrorism in Kabul, sooner or later, a "Saigon-style" evacuation of Us and Allied forces could be on the cards. The net follow could be the break-up and partition of Afghanistan into a northern and western area and a southern and eastern area, which would consist of the two key cities of Kandahar and, the capital Kabul.

Pastunistan?

The Taliban themselves, however may settle not to take on the Northern Alliance and fighting may combine on creating a border in the middle of the two areas, about which the two sides may reach an agreement regardless of Us and Allied plans or preferences. The Taliban may claim the name Afghanistan or might opt for "Pashtunistan" - a long-standing, though intermittent quiz, of the Pashtuns, within Afghanistan and especially along the ungovernable border regions inside Pakistan. It could not be ruled out that the Taliban could be aiming to lead a break away of the Pakistani Pashtuns to form a 30 million strong greater Pashtun state, encompassing some 18 million Pakistani Pashtuns and 12 Afghan Pashtuns.

Although the Pashtuns are more intimately related to tribal and clan loyalty, there exists a strong latent embryo of a Pashtun national consciousness and the idea of an independent Pashtunistan state has been raised regularly in the past with regard to the disputed territories tasteless to Afghanistan and Pakistan. The area was cut in two by the "Durand Line", a totally artificial border in the middle of created by British Imperialism in the 19th century. It has been a quiz, bedevilling relations in the middle of the Afghanistan and Pakistan throughout their history, and with India before Partition. It has been an untreated, festering wound which has lead to sporadic wars and border clashes in the middle of the two countries and occasional upsurges in movements for Pashtun independence.

In fact, is this what lies behind the current course of appeasement President Musharraf of Pakistan towards the Pashtun tribes in along the Frontiers and his armistice with North Waziristan last year? Is he attempting to avoid supplementary alienating Pashtun tribes there and head-off a potential separatist movement in Pakistan, which could design from the Taliban's nasty across the border in Afghanistan?

Trying to subdue the frontier lands has proven costly and unpopular for Musharraf. In effect, he faces exactly the same problems as the Us and Allies in Afghanistan or Iraq. Indeed, fighting Pashtun tribes has cost him duplicate the whole of forces as the Us has lost in Iraq. Evidently, he could not win and has located instead for an attempted political solution.

When he agreed the course of appeasement and virtual self-rule for North Waziristan last year, President Musharraf stated clearly that he is acting first and foremost to protect the interests of Pakistan. While there was outrageous in Kabul, his deal with the Pashtuns is essentially an effort to firewall his country against civil war and disintegration. In his own words, what he fears most is, the « Talibanistation » of the whole Pashtun people, which he warns could inflame the already fierce fundamentalist and other separatist movement across his entire country. He does not want to open the door for any backdraft from the Afghan war to engulf Pakistan.

Musharraf faces the nationalist struggle in Kashmir, an insurgency in Balochistan, unrest in the Sindh, and growing terrorist bombings in the main cities. There is also a large Shiite people and clashes in the middle of Sunnis and Shias are regular. Moreover, fundamentalist retain in his own Armed forces and intelligence Services is very strong. So much so that investigator consider it likely that the Army and incommunicable assistance is protecting, not only top Taliban leaders, but Bin Laden and the Al Qaeda central leadership understanding to be entrenched in the same Pakistani borderlands.

For the same reasons, he has not captured or killed Bin Laden and the Al Qaeda leadership. Returning from the frontier provinces with Bin Laden's severed head would be a trophy that would cost him his own head in Pakistan. At best he takes the occasional risk of giving a nod and a wink to a Us incursion, but even then at the peril of the chagrin of the people and his own forces and incommunicable service.

The Break-Up of Pakistan?

Musharraf probably hopes that by giving de facto autonomy to the Taliban and Pashtun leaders now with a virtual free hand for cross border operations into Afghanistan, he will undercut any hereafter upsurge in retain for a break-away independent Pashtunistan state or a "Peoples' War" of the Pashtun populace as a whole, as he himself described it.

However events may prove him sorely wrong. Indeed, his course could fully backfire upon him. As the war intensifies, he has no guarantees that the current autonomy may yet burgeon into a separatist movement. Appetite comes with eating, as they say. Moreover, should the Taliban fail to re-conquer al of Afghanistan, as looks likely, but captures at least half of the country, then a Taliban Pashtun caliphate could be established which would act as a magnet to separatist Pashtuns in Pakistan. Then, the likely break up of Afghanistan along ethnic lines, could, indeed, lead the way to the break up of Pakistan, as well.

Strong centrifugal forces have all the time bedevilled the stability and unity of Pakistan, and, in the context of the new world situation, the country could be faced with civil wars and favorite fundamentalist uprisings, probably including a military-fundamentalist coup d'état.

Fundamentalism is deeply rooted in Pakistan society. The fact that in the year following 9/11, the most favorite name given to male children born that year was "Osama" (not a Pakistani name) is a small indication of the mood. Given the weakening base of the traditional, secular opposition parties, conditions would be ripe for a coup d'état by the fundamentalist wing of the Army and Isi, leaning on the radicalised masses to take power. Some form of radical, forces Islamic regime, where legal powers would shift to Islamic courts and forms of shira law would be likely. Although, even then, this might not take place outside of a protracted accident of upheaval and civil war conditions, mixing fundamentalist movements with nationalist uprisings and sectarian violence in the middle of the Sunni and minority Shia populations.

The horror that is now Iraq would take on gothic proportions across the continent. The prophesy of an arc of civil war over Lebanon, Palestine and Iraq would spread to south Asia, stretching from Pakistan to Palestine, through Afghanistan into Iraq and up to the Mediterranean coast.

Undoubtedly, this would also spill over into India both with regards to the Muslim society and Kashmir. Border clashes, terrorist attacks, sectarian pogroms and insurgency would break out. A new war, and possibly nuclear war, in the middle of Pakistan and India could not be ruled out.

Atomic Al Qaeda

Should Pakistan break down completely, a Taliban-style government with strong Al Qaeda work on is a real possibility. Such deep chaos would, of course, open a "Pandora's box" for the region and the world. With the possibility of unstable clerical and forces fundamentalist elements being in control of the Pakistan nuclear arsenal, not only their use against India, but Israel becomes a possibility, as well as the acquisition of nuclear and other deadly weapons secrets by Al Qaeda.

Invading Pakistan would not be an choice for America. Therefore a nuclear war would now again become a real strategic possibility. This would bring a shift in the tectonic plates of global relations. It could usher in a new Cold War with China and Russia pitted against the Us.

What is at stake in "the half-forgotten war" in Afghanistan is far greater than that in Iraq. But America's capacities for controlling the situation are very restricted. Might it be, in the end, they are also forced to accept President Musharraf's unspoken motto of "Better an additional one Taliban Afghanistan, than a Taliban Nuclear Pakistan!"

best someone else Taliban Afghanistan, than a Taliban Nuclear Pakistan!?

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Nuclear Threat From Mexico

Detonating a nuclear weapon in or over Juarez, Mexico is the same thing as detonating one in El Paso, Texas: The contrast is it may be a itsybitsy easier to effect in Juarez. From the heart of downtown El Paso to downtown Juarez is just a very short distance. Or a bomb on the international bridge dividing the two countries empties into Avenida Juárez in downtown Juarez, on the south and El Paso downtown to the north could do the job and would be easy for any terrorist to pull off. Nowhere else on the planet are two major cities of two distinct nations so intimately tied together and vulnerable - or so easy to visit from whether side day or night.

One nuclear weapon located in Juarez Mexico could kill up-wards of two million population approximately half of them Americans living in both El Paso and Juarez.

News From Afghanistan

Just a historical reminder: The atomic bomb named "Little Boy" was dropped on Hiroshima by the Enola Gay, a Boeing B-29 bomber, at 8:15 in the morning of August 6, 1945 - 62 years ago.

Of growing concern to some U.S. Officials is the way the terrorists south of the border are taking benefit of the lack of sophistication on the Mexicans part for their inability and unwillingness to safe their own borders from terrorist infiltration and are using the low Mexican immigration standards and the U.S. Open border to slip into Mexico or the U.S. With a nuclear weapon or dirty bomb.

Former Cia Director R. James Woolsey told NewsMax in an exclusive interview that terrorists could strike the American homeland - possibly with a weapon of mass destruction.
A terrorist strike with a nuclear, dirty bomb or with biological weapons was "a real possibility." Woolsey's comments echo those of Fbi Director Robert Mueller, who told NewsMax that al-Qaeda's predominant goal is clear: to detonate a nuclear expedient that would kill hundreds of thousands of Americans.

Tens of millions of radical Muslims, mostly of Arabic descent, live in Latin America.
International law-enforcement authorities combating terrorism have growing concerns about a major influx into Mexico of Arabic-speaking visitors carrying Cuban, Russian, Greece, Holland and other European passports.

Many of the passport holders could not even speak the language of their so-called mum land, agreeing to a inexpressive narrative given to the Mexican legislators.
Intelligence sources have been warning us that they have noticed a tendency among Islamic terrorists to operate in Mexico. Mexico with a territory slightly bigger than Alaska and with geographic extremes that have proven excellent for hiding bombs, weapons, illegal aliens, and drugs is currently what's going on south of our border.

According to the "Inm" (Mex. Immigr.) Just last week six adult male Iraqis were arrested in Tapachula, state of Chiapas, while attempting to reach the Distrito Federal of Mexico and to march to the United States from that point. In their first declaration, the six said they entered through Central America, reached Guatemala and that there they purchased the false passports from Greece and Holland which they initially presented to Mexican officials when arrested. They also claimed they crossed the Suchiate River (bordering Mexico and Guatemala) on a raft.

The names on the phony passports were Hristov Eroslavov Dobromir, Mirian Sitkinas, Carlos Harden, Stevan Bergian, Vasileios Venetis and Vasilev Martinov Georgi.
Another two Iraqis with false Bulgarian passports were detected and detained at the airport in Monterrey, Nuevo Leon. Now, Mexican officials are reportedly investigating "a network that could be made up of Mexicans operating in Greece who is selling false Bulgarian passports for ten thousand dollars to European and Middle Eastern citizens." Last year 28 illegal's from Iraq were detected at the airport in Monterrey alone (El Porvenir said there were 23, seventeen of them in a particular event)

The most recent two, "Wisam Gorgies", 34 yr. Old male, and "Rana Nazar Peyoz", 26 yr. Old female, flew from Madrid and said they obtained the false passports in Greece; their aim was to reach the United States.

The Mexican government is very concerned with the up-tick of known Mexican communist party members who are being converted to Islam this arises from modern immigrants who import new radical jihadi philosophies into their ranks. These population are also active in Islamic missionary work converting the poor and destitute with promises of a great life under Islam.
These terrorists are organized in active cells nearby the country of Mexico agreeing to a Mexican normal who wants to remain nameless. I have seen documents describing part of the drug-smuggling cartels cooperation with terrorists using their existing routes though Mexico to the states. Islamic terrorists are paying millions to the Mexicans to converyance their drugs from Afghanistan, as well as weapons and people. These expound well defined drug routes run through a web of border crossings pointing also to the complex cooperation in the middle of various "smuggling cartels and the terrorists." These belong to jihadi organizations such as al-Qaeda, joining military with local drug lords, developing and greasing their smuggling skids with money all the way to Mexico aiming finally to hit the U.S.

With the nature of lawlessness, graft, poverty and disorder in Mexico, enables operatives of such terrorist groups as al-Qaeda, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and Hamas to operate with impunity. These organizations have turned Mexico into a logistical strike base.
The growing danger is that the militant Islam terrorists have penetrated Mexico. Some of them have ties to smugglers operating in American states bordering Mexico, especially those with connections in Arizona, New Mexico, Texas and California.

Experienced anti-terror experts narrative the Mexican border is the Achilles heel of the group of Homeland Security.
Islam is on the move in Mexico and throughout Latin America, making dramatic gains in converting the native population, addition immigration, establishing businesses and charities and attracting concentration from U.S. Government officials who have asked their neighbors to the south to keep an eye on foreign Muslim groups.
Al-Qaeda and other allied organizations are addition operations throughout Mexico, establishing both legitimate and criminal enterprises to help fund future strike operations.
According to U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela Charles Shapiro, approximately every extremist terror group is now represented in Latin America.

Pentagon officials have confirmed human smuggling rings in Latin America are attempting to sneak al-Qaeda operatives into the U.S.
Anti-terrorism experts say extremist cells tied to Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and al-Qaeda network are operating in Argentina, Ecuador, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Paraguay and Uruguay.
Fbi Director Robert Mueller told a congressional panel that illegal aliens from countries with ties to al-Qaeda have crossed into the U.S. From Mexico using false identities.
Mueller said some of the aliens are population with Middle Eastern names who have adopted Hispanic last names before advent into the U.S.
"We are concerned, Homeland safety is concerned about special interest aliens entering the United States," Mueller said.

The U.S. Bush administration officials have previously said al-Qaeda could try to infiltrate the United States through the Mexican border.
Al-Qaeda has come to be deeply complex in cocaine and heroine trafficking, arms and uranium smuggling, counterfeiting Cds and Dvds and money-laundering activities.
Cash laden Non-Mexicans often are more difficult to intercept because they typically pay high-end smugglers a large sum of money to efficiently help them in setting up in Mexico or help them across the border, rather than traverse it on their own.

According to the WorldNetDaily many of America's enemies have chosen Mexico as a target to search and undermine safety in the Americas and weaken America politically and strategically. America's various adversaries have chosen Mexico as their infiltration route. And American politicians are occasion the doors wide to our enemies with Nafta and The safety and Prosperity Partnership of North America (Spp) programs.

Robert Grenier, who was head of the Cia's counter-terrorism center, told a press seminar in Mexico that the Muslim terrorist organizations see the illegal immigration and drug trafficking networks in the Latin American nations as the most sufficient way to move population and equipment into the Us.
Grenier said that the Bush administration fears both Hamas and Hizballah may already have sleeper cells operating in Mexico.
Hamas and Hizballah have both threatened in the past to enlarge their war against Israel to contain the United States.

Source: U.S. Government, Mexican Government, Laguna Journal, WorldNetDaily & NewsMax.

Nuclear Threat From Mexico

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